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Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Home Buddies Quarterly Economic Report - Part 3 - Opportunities

By Cliff Pape

Over the past several weeks we have taken a bird's eye view of the US economy. In this post I will be addressing what we will likely see happening in mortgage and real estate markets in 2009. Finally, I will point out the unique opportunities that are available in this type of environment.

Mortgage Markets and Credit

Perhaps the greatest news leading into 2009 is the commitment by the Department of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve ("The Fed") to achieve lower mortgage interest rates. The fed announced on November 25th that it would purchase $600 billion in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities and unsecured debt.

Whether the government will be able to accomplish it or not, the idea is to lower the cost and improve the investment of financing a property. The goal is to decrease debt costs to put potential investors or retail buyers with good credit back in the market to stabilize the economy.

If investors and retail buyers come back into the market, property values will begin to stabilize thereby improving the balance sheets in the banking industry. This has always been the role of investors in the real estate cycle. This is also a plus for the mortgage loan officers and brokers because the credit markets will ultimately loosen and in 2009 the mortgage market should swing back up. The cycle to this point has been fairly predictable and we have long been predicting the next refinance boom following government intervention.

Real Estate Markets

There are a few things to keep an eye on in Houston. If housing permits continue to contract, it could be a while before the national residential real estate scene improves. Several markets such as Houston are still bucking the national trend, but, even in these markets, permits are beginning to contract which is pointing toward a slow-down as we head into 2009.

If unemployment figures creep up in Houston next year then that may be a sign that Houston may not escape the US and global economic turmoil with just a small hiccup.

Opportunities

The credit crisis has brought fear into markets whose economic fundamentals would not otherwise justify it. Therefore there may never be a better time to buy single family homes in Houston because the emotional fear does not match the fundamentals and prices have fallen below what they would otherwise warrant without the short-term, emotionally-driven fear.

With credit standards like they are right now, many investors (and most retail buyers) are out of the game because they are not able to get financing for single family homes. So now is a window of opportunity for smart investors with good credit to buy up undervalued investment properies in Houston.

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