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Sunday, December 14, 2008

Theta Decay - Using Time To Make Money With Options

By Walter Fox

As you're probably aware, a number of market systems exist that claim to be sure money makers. That shouldn't be surprising given the number of market traders expending time and effort on developing systems to capitalize on trends and anomalies within the market. But not all these systems are as reliable as they claim to be. Smart traders will choose carefully, or watch their hard-earned capital drain away.

Theta decay is one much-hailed example of such systems. The name itself is surely impressive. The fact is, though, that theta decay rests on a very fundamental concept in option trading the fact that options expire on a set date.

Because option trading instruments have a finite life span, their value would tend to change as they come closer to the strike date. In analyzing trends in trading of options, the spread of prices that exist between the issuance date and the strike date is shown to get smaller as the issue nears expiration.

The reason an option trading system using theta decay analysis works is because there is a more perfect information system in place for options than stock issues. Option trading is a more information efficient market because of the expiration date. Keen traders who keep up with the information flow can stand to make big gains from a system using this analysis.

But how does one put theta decay to play in stock options trading? It's not as difficult as you might think. The key insight is that the time value of money changes faster as the expiration date approaches. Studies have found that an option's time value falls according to a linear pattern before reaching the last thirty or so trading days before its expiration date.

Those last thirty days are where this set of option trading strategies comes into full effect. As the issue gets closer within that thirty day period, the time value of the option starts to decline at an accelerated rate. As a result, if you hold certain positions, you can profit from this loss.

By holding a short position in an option that is close to expiration while selling an inverse call option, you can capitalize on the vale loss in a couple of ways. You can make money by selling the call at a premium to what the actual value is, and can make money on the short position so long as the option fails to finish in the money on the positive side.

If you get your timing right and keep an eagle eye out for option information, theta decay is a useful tool to employ with your stock options trading. As with any system, there is always the possibility of losing your principal through incautious application of the technique. However, if you are attuned to the market and carefully scrutinize expiration dates, you can easily find yourself making money with this effective and under-utilized strategy.

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