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Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Bank Base Rate Cut can it help or hinder the public.

By Chris Clare

We are getting further into the credit crisis, and as we do so, people are finding it more difficult to get credit for anything. This is causing people to look even more closely at interest rates than ever before. A year ago, Joe Public wouldn't have had a clue what LIBOR was or what it meant. Only those in the financial industry were aware of its meaning. Nowadays it is common knowledge, and a very hot topic.

The nation is now aware that LIBOR, the London Inter Bank Offered Rate reflects the actual rate at which banks borrow money from each other and is accepted as an accurate barometer of how global markets are reacting to market conditions.

The British Banking Association (BBA) takes the inter-bank borrowing rates from 16 contributor panel banks and looks at the middle eight of these rates (discarding the top and bottom four) and uses these to calculate an average, which then becomes that day's BBA LIBOR rate.

Over the last twelve months the difference between the LIBOR rate and the Bank of England base rate has been substantial and it has also been acknowledged that the period of this variation is also longer than ever before. There has recently been a drop in the rate with a 1.065 percentage reduction on Friday 7th November giving a rate of 4.496% (its lowest point since April 2004), reflecting a slashing of the interest rate by 1.5% to 3% by the Bank of England. The pressure has been put on the financial institutions to pass this on to the general public, not only by the government, but also by the media. With this in mind, many of the leading banks are following the Bank of England's lead.

But there would appear to be several things that have been overlooked in the rush to pass on the perceived benefits of the drop in the base rate.

A reduction in interest rates to existing customers is very welcome. However from the bank's perspective this can have a detrimental effect on arrears performance. As borrower's payments are reduced this will automatically increase arrears percentages; for example a borrower who has a monthly payment of ?350 and is say ?300 in arrears, is currently 'off the radar'. However, should the monthly payment be reduced due to a rate cut to ?280 the borrower is now in excess of one month in arrear. This will be replicated throughout the collections process as those accounts that are one month move to two, two to three etc culminating in more accounts reaching the stage where they are referred to solicitors for litigation proceedings to commence.

Banks who wish to lend to other banks at the LIBOR rate will be looking at the performance of the borrowing bank's mortgage book. This will inevitably have slipped with the decrease in rates, and will of course only slip further as more cuts happen in the future. As a result, banks will become more unwilling to lend out as the possible risk of lending increases, which will in turn be detrimental to the LIBOR rate.

There is another way that banks achieve funding for their daily dealings. Income from their loan books and retail deposits are also used for mortgages and loans. This is how some banks have been able to keep afloat during the recent crisis and it is indeed true to say that the competition that now exists for investments is every bit as intense as it was for mortgages just a few years back.

The drop in rates will mean that the income derived from borrowers will plummet, although banks will continue to grapple for investment business. Therefore the bank's profits will droop and their recovery will be made slower. As the banks fight for investment, the rates drop even below the LIBOR rate, meaning that the only way for banks to get liquid funds is through retail business. In that respect, LIBOR must then drop far enough to be attractive to banks in comparison with the cost of getting in retail business.

To summarise, there is little doubt that the government's actions have boosted confidence levels and created a positive impact on the money market. However there is still a long way to go, and many more challenges to overcome, and the cash injection and reduction in interest rates, although remedial, will still have a few nasty side effects. The irony is, as this article is written, LIBOR has gone back up to 5.65%, so who knows what to expect!

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