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Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Will the UK drop in base rate make any difference to the crisis?

By Chris Clare

On the 6th of November, an unprecedented meeting took place involving the Bank of England's monetary policy committee. At that meeting the bank decided to drop their interest rates by a huge 1.5%, bringing interest the interest rate to the lowest level seen since 1954. The rate currently sits at 3%.

But is this going to make any difference to the market as it stands? Unfortunately, in my professional opinion, the answer to that question is probably "no". It seems likely to me that most lenders are unable to compete and drop their interest rates by this 1.5%.It seems that the majority if not all of the lenders have failed to pass this reduction on to their clients and are holding their standard variable as it stands, regardless of the fact that his is now at least 6 months behind the times.

What has happened in both the UK and in the world markets is that, although the banks have indeed lowered their rates, the rates for funds from bank to bank have not decreased at the same level. The London inter-bank offered rate, or LIBOR as it is also known, is the rate at which the London financial institutions lend between themselves. Now whilst LIBOR has indeed decreased of late, it has not done so as much as the banks base rates. So although base rate drop would seem to help, it does not.

In light of what is happening with the credit crunch, and also because lenders bad lending books have become transparent and public knowledge, public lenders have become reluctant to lend to one another. This nervousness amongst lenders is what affects the LIBOR rate. Everyone in the finance industry is all too aware at the moment of the bad lending decisions that have been made in recent times, and with credit risk being such a hot topic lenders just aren't prepared to take any more risks.

You might have thought that the huge injection of capital from governments both here and abroad would have oiled the system but let me tell you this is far from the case. I am unsure why, there are rumors that lenders have been told that as a condition of the injection they have to lend a set percentage more next year than this year and as such they are saving themselves for that mandatory position but who knows. All I know is there is very little money out there, what is there is at low loan to values and the rates are poor.

I personally think that todays decision will have the effect of boosting consumer confidence, people will think that low base rates can only mean things are going to get better. That said they will soon realise this may not actually be the case, especially if their particular lender does not pass that increase on to them within their own mortgage. That said commercial finance should get cheaper as most commercial finance deals are based as a percentage over base rates so any deals that have been done in the past will benefit from this cut.

Irrespective of that, a lot of commercial lenders have bumped up their over base rate level to preempt any new customers looking to borrow. Equally, some lenders have already withdrawn their base rate tracker level or increased it so as to eliminate any possible risk of losing more money. After such a huge single cut in rates, and looking at the action being taken, it makes you wonder if these lenders actually saw it coming!

So what effect will the drop actually have? In the short term, probably very little effect at all. Nevertheless, I would like to think that over the coming months we will see the positive effect trickle down bit by bit into the markets. If it doesn't reach Joe Public, and doesn't reach sooner rather than later, we may have to face the possibility of being in some very, very serious financial trouble indeed. Fingers crossed then!

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